Stanley Cup Playoffs · Round 1 · Saturday April 25, 2026 · Odds via Covers.com
Carolina Hurricanes @ Ottawa Senators
Away ML
-125
Home ML
+105
Total
O/U 5.5
Carolina Hurricanes
Record53-22-7
ATS25-12-5 road
Road25-12-5
L10 O/UCAR 59.8% xGF in series
Ottawa Senators
Record44-27-11
ATS23-13-6 home
Home23-13-6
L10 O/UUnder in 2 of 3 series games
The M1 Hurricanes are one win away from a sweep of the WC2 Senators, and Ottawa has looked overmatched every single game — they haven’t led once in the series and have mustered just 3 goals total. Carolina is a buzzsaw right now, and the Sens are heading home without two of their top defensemen. Your buddy who bet Ottawa to win this series is not doing well.
Key factors
- CAR dominates possession at 59.8% xGF all series — Ottawa simply can’t generate offense
- Andersen is lights-out with a .964 SV% and 0.84 GAA, while Ottawa’s defense is decimated by injury
- Taylor Hall’s line has been a nightmare for Ottawa — Hall alone has 5 points in 3 games
The picks
| Pick | Reasoning | Conf. |
|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes -125 | Ottawa is playing without Sanderson and Zub, Chabot is being run into the ground, and Carolina hasn’t shown a single crack in this series — this is a closure game for a dominant team. | ★★★ |
| Under 5.5 | Andersen has been practically unbeatable all series, Ottawa can barely score with a healthy lineup let alone a shorthanded one, and two of three games in this series have already gone under. | ★★★ |
| Logan Stankoven anytime goal scorer (+245) | Stankoven is on the hottest line in the playoffs, Ottawa’s defense is a shell of itself without Sanderson and Zub, and at plus money on a sweep game he’s a great value target. | ★★★ |
The lean
**Logan Stankoven anytime goal scorer (+245) is the best bet on the board — elite value on a player feasting against a depleted Ottawa blue line in a must-close game for Carolina.**
Fade alert
Don’t fall for Ullmark’s GSAE numbers and back Ottawa at home — his goaltending has papered over how thoroughly outplayed this team has been, and he can’t stop a sweep by himself with two top defensemen sitting in street clothes.
Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild
Away ML
+114
Home ML
-135
Total
O/U 5.5
Dallas Stars
Record50-20-12
ATS25-9-8 road
Road25-9-8
L10 O/UOver in 2 of 3 series games
Minnesota Wild
Record46-24-12
ATS23-10-8 home
Home23-10-8
L10 O/UPK% 64.7% this series (6 PPG allowed)
C2 Dallas rolls into Saint Paul up 2-1 and smelling blood after a double-OT thriller in Game 3 — Johnston’s PP winner was the dagger. The Wild are fighting for their playoff lives at home, but Minnesota’s penalty kill is an absolute disaster right now and that’s a massive problem against this Stars power play.
Key factors
- MIN PK% is a brutal 64.7% this series, surrendering 6 PPGs — a death sentence vs. Dallas
- Oettinger rebounded hard: .919 SV% over last 2 games on 62 shots, quietly locked in
- Heiskanen has a point in all 3 games and leads the series with 23 shot attempts — he’s everywhere
The picks
| Pick | Reasoning | Conf. |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Stars +114 | Sharp money moved MIN from -125 to -135 yet Dallas keeps winning close games, went 8-2-0 to close the regular season, and Kaprizov was held to 2 shots in Game 3 — take the plus money on the team controlling the series. | ★★☆ |
| Under 5.5 | Wallstedt’s 2.27 GAA and Oettinger’s recent surge suggest both goalies are tightening up at the right time, and playoff elimination-game pressure tends to tighten defensive structure. | ★★☆ |
| Miro Heiskanen over 0.5 points (+105) | Heiskanen has cashed this in every single game of the series, leads the team in shot attempts, and getting plus-money on a point-in-every-game performer is a gift. | ★★★ |
The lean
**Miro Heiskanen over 0.5 points (+105) is the best bet on the board — he’s been a point-per-game monster this series and you’re getting plus odds.**
Fade alert
Don’t blindly tail the 62% of public hammering the Wild ML — Minnesota’s power play defense has been a sieve all series and fading broken special teams units in the playoffs is how sharp bettors print money.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Philadelphia Flyers
Away ML
+100
Home ML
-120
Total
O/U 5.5
Pittsburgh Penguins
Record41-25-16
ATS21-12-8 road
Road21-12-8
L10 O/UPIT 4 goals in 3 games total
Philadelphia Flyers
Record43-27-12
ATS20-13-8 home
Home20-13-8
L10 O/UUnder in 2 of 3 series games
The Pittsburgh Penguins are staring down the barrel of history — one loss away from a first-round sweep at the hands of the M3 Flyers. PHI (43-27-12) has been the better team all series, outscoring PIT 11-4 and winning Game 3 5-2. The Pens (41-25-16) are running on pride alone and Crosby hasn’t scored a single goal.
Key factors
- Flyers outscoring Pens 11-4 in series — total domination across all three games
- Pittsburgh power play 0-for-7 all series, killing any chance of momentum swings
- Vladar GTD with right arm injury adds goalie uncertainty but Ersson is capable backup
The picks
| Pick | Reasoning | Conf. |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Flyers -120 | PHI has controlled this series from puck drop in Game 1 and closing out at home is exactly the spot a confident team thrives. | ★★★ |
| Under 5.5 | Under has hit in 2 of 3 series games, Pittsburgh can barely score, and 79% of the public hammering the Over is a classic fade spot. | ★★★ |
| Porter Martone anytime goal scorer (+205) | The 19-year-old has scored in all three games and at plus money he’s the best value on the board tonight. | ★★★ |
The lean
**Porter Martone anytime goal scorer (+205) is the single best bet — three straight games, plus odds, and a series-clinching stage where Philly’s hottest player will be unleashed.**
Fade alert
Don’t get sucked in by the Penguins never being swept narrative — 79% of the public is on the Over, making Under 5.5 the sharper side against a PIT offense that’s been completely shut down.
